Prediction of In-Hospital Mortality in Patients Undergoing Isolated Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery

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Abstract

Objective The aim of the study was to develop applicable methods to identify factors associated with in-hospital mortality after coronary surgery. The study included patients admitted to41surgical centers from Argentina. Results The average age at the time of surgery for the1045men and 248 women were 60.95 ± 9.34 and 64.26 ±9.46 respectively. The overall crude in-hospital mortality rate was 11.76% (152 patients). Multivariate analysis revealed the following risk factors for in-hospital mortality: age more than 70 years, congestive heart failure, prior bypass surgery, renal failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, left main stenosis, moderate and severe left ventricular dysfunction and priority of surgery (urgent or emergent). Both, a mathematical model and a risk score test were performed with 75% (877 patients) to assess the risk of in-hospital mortality. The operating characteristic curve area was 0.76 for the mathematical model and 0.74 for the risk score test.To assess the performance of the two methods a validation were performed with a test set. Conclusion Data from 1293 patients undergoing coronary by-pass were collected to identify in-hospital mortality risk factors. Calculation of probability of death as performed in this population with a mathematical model and a risk score test will be useful among patients and institutions in our country.